The Challenge: Battle of the Exes Fantasy League

So over the past few years, ok maybe more, I have been a frequent viewer of every Real World/Road Rules Challenge Season. Over a brief discussion with a few friends we all jumped on the opportunity of creating a fantasy league for this upcoming season titled "The Battle of the Exes". We will be using the Grantland Scoring System and will likely have some fun outcomes for the seasons losers. Terms of the bets have yet to be agreed upon but the words "Frosted" and "Tips" have been discussed.

I went into this, as my first of many, reality show fantasy draft with a pretty basic strategy. That strategy was to know the basic rules of the show and correlate those rules and the Grantland system and choose the best possible team. Also, your team has to survive week after week to give you points. Something brought up in the preview show is how teams will be put into elimination challenges. The last place team from the performance challenge and a team chosen by the first place team in the same challenge. This lead me to think that the middle of the road teams with a lot of experience and a good political (LOL) standing are more likely to not step on toes in this game and make it to the end.

Having the 4th pick, I really liked my position, even though the 3 big hitters were gone in CT, Bananas, and The Ginger. With my thoughts on how the season was going to go, Abraham Boise was a safe pick and one of the nut job sociopaths would fall to me in the next round. However, last night I realized that I picked the Charlie Redz of The Challenge. Which obviously is a good thing for the Grantland scoring system.

Following my first pick, the 4 nut cases, Jasmine, Cara Maria, Camila, and Paula went in succession. I thought that the nut case along with the safe pick in the first round would've been PERFECT. It was obviously not meant to be, which lead me back to my first round strategy. Survival. With Evelyn and Laurel not in this season, Sarah, in my opinion, is the strongest female competitor. The only downside is she doesn't fuck in the house, but she won't hold back trying to make other girls cry.

My strategy for my 3rd round pick was the same as the first, going for value and maximum episode exposure. I think Emily and Ty are a real dark horse in this game. I don't remember an ugly break up between the two and she is RIPPED. My fourth pick came around and ONCE AGAIN, my train wreck female was chosen right before my selection. I thought Naomi was guaranteed at least a 3 some in the pool type points. So then it came down to the decision between Vinny and Aneesa. Aneesa definitely has get drunk and make bitches cry written all over her but I believe she was out first in the last challenge season and once again, I really liked the team of Sarah and Vinny. Vinny might be the Randy Moss of my 2007 fantasy team to go along with Sarah aka Tom Brady.

I understand my team doesn't have the flash, drama, controversy, or slut potential, but damnit I believe they will lead the league in total episodes and therefore maximize their point potential. Good luck on 2nd place, fellas!

If you want to follow along with the league, the main blog used will be that of Eric Doll: http://norcoastbias.blogspot.com/. Everyone else on twitter if you want to follow along with all the shit talking:

- lilOUmikey
- ClevelandCat
- uklefty22
- chairboyswag
- tdegirolamo

The Calculated Trade Value of Andrew Luck, Auction Style!

With the end of the NFL regular season, fans of teams out of the playoff picture immediately shift their focus to the NFL Draft. Especially where my fandom lies, with the Cleveland Browns. It has been talked about since January 6th 2011, that Andrew Luck was going to be the #1 pick in the 2012 NFL Draft. If your mathematically challenged, thats over 15.5 months of discussion of this "once in a generation prospect".

A few weeks ago on December 21st, ESPN's Adam Schefter on Mike and Mike discussed a scenario where the STL Rams would have the first overall pick, and it becoming available on the trade market. Now obviously, the Indianapolis Colts have the #1 pick, but let's have some fun and do some math!!! "it becomes literally an auction for the #1 pick" and "roughly 3 1's and 2 2's maybe 4 1st round picks" . The purpose of this post is to mathematically determine how that auction would work. Now in order to have an auction, you need at least 2 potential buyers. I'll give you 4 potential buyers. The Cleveland Browns, Washington Redskins, Miami Dolphins, and Seattle Seahawks.

"Whoever's got the most money in their pocket can certainly buy it" or him in this case.

Now what we have to do it determine, who actually, has the most money in their pocket.

Facts:

1) Cleveland, Washington, Miami, and Seattle have all of their own picks for the next 3 seasons

2) Cleveland has Atlanta's 1st round pick from the Julio Jones trade

3) I am using this chart for calculations http://www.draftcountdown.com/features/Value-Chart.php

Assumptions:

1) Future picks have a decreased value on the value chart just like Time Value of Money

2) Since the new CBA rookie wage scale came into effect last season, 1st round picks are worth even more based on the smaller guaranteed contracts

3) When trading future picks, teams use an average of where they think the other team will finish the season of the pick they traded

3a) Both Atlanta and New Orleans were projected to be a playoff team in the 2011/12 season

To determine the value of future first round picks, I took two trades from last years draft that resulted in the trading of future first round picks, The Cleveland/Atlanta Julio Jones trade, and the New Orleans/New England Mark Ingram trade. (I only used those 2 trades since they are the only future 1st round pick draft transactions with the new rookie wage scale in effect)

So then we take the average of the two multiples 0.55557 and 0.46321 to get our Future Pick Multiple (FPM) to be 0.51. Now we can calculate the value of future picks and since no teams have 3 1st round picks and 2 2nd round picks in the 2012 NFL Draft, NOW we can have an auction!! The question is, who has the most money in their pockets?

My Calculations: (Assumed Luck would lead Wash, Miami, and Seattle to the Playoffs)

Redskins: 1st thru 4th round pick in 2012, 2013, and 2014 = 2,884.28

Dolphins: 1st thru 4th round pick in 2012, 2013, and 2014 = 2,791.28

Seahawks: 1st thru 4th round pick in 2012, 2013, and 2014 = 2,393.28

Browns: both 1st's in 2012, and 2011 2nd = 3,004.00

So basically once Mike Holmgren plays Dave Hester and bids 3004 on the draft value scale, nobody can match and that's the final YUUUUUUUUUUUP of this auction.

Coincidentally, on the draft value chart, the #1 OVR pick is worth 3,000 points, so if my calculations and assumptions are (somewhat) accurate (big if, I know), this pick is IMPOSSIBLE to be worth more than any other past or future 1st OVR selection.

Notes:

• This does not include the trade of players, since their value cannot be given a mathematical value.
• I have triple checked the math, but that doesn't mean it's correct. I am not an expert, just a fan with a blog and a legally purchased copy of Microsoft Excel.
• I am a Cleveland Browns fan and I would snap do this trade if my numbers are accurate.
• Can't you picture Mike Holmgren screaming YUUUUUUUUUUUP at the top of his lungs?

Leave comments/questions here or you can get to me through my twitter account HERE.

Standing Ejection

Now I know, since this story broke 5 days ago, the horse had been beaten more then Sheldon Brown in the first four games, but with a first hand experience, gotta dig it up a little bit more.

It was a normal Browns home game Sunday, I arrived in the Munilot (is it one words or 2?) a little after 7am and began the normal tailgate routine. Only thing out of the ordinary there was @ClevelandFrowns locking his keys in his car like a 16 year old girl, but I digress. Myself and @Rossitron5 arrived at our seats in section 534 around 12:40 and began killing time before the kickoff with small talk with the people around us.

Right around kickoff a mid 20s gentleman wearing a #58 "B. Miller" jersey arrived at his seat 2 rows in front of us with his eyes practically rolled in the back of his head already. I thought to myself "this is gonna be fun". I like fucking with people who are far too drunk. Little did I know he would use said seat as much as Shurmur used Hillis on short yardage situations. He stood, and stood, and stood. Old dude in front of me said to him "You better sit down [whippersnapper] or you're going to get kicked out". "Yeah [motherfucker]."

@Rossitron5 who might have a severe case of ADD starts giggling and telling me he's going to text The Fuzz. "It's going to be awesome dude, trust me". In the mean time B. Miller has sat down during 1st and 2nd downs, but was still standing during kickoffs! Brah, it's going to be a touchback, then a TV timeout, have a seat! The 20 people in a 10 seat radius, that's an area of 3.1415 X 10 ^ 2 (math!), have become annoyed with B Miller. Ross finally figures out how to make this text happen (moron) and we wait. Giggling to each other how no one will expect us since we were sticking up for him at first. However, I was thinking that his kid really deserves to be tossed, giggling aside. Thinking to myself "this is the reason these rules are in place" /unwrapping a Werthers Origional. B Miller is walked somewhere with his buddy, and buddy says "we'll be back". Hired rent a cops arrived 4 minutes later (shit's fast) but B Miller never returned. Props to his buddy for likely getting him out of the stadium, unprops to him for lying to us!

So what was the point to all of this? To tell you (all 4 of you) that there are specific situations where "fans" deserve to be booted for excessive standing. And also to you this epic picture from the Muni Lot. Superpimp also now has business cards (and delicious blood?)!

Rey Maualuga's Driving School

Following Mr. Maualuga's attempt at ESPN's top piece of ace he realized that the more mature class of woman was not for him. Last night Rey Rey totaled a 2003 Pontiac Sunfire when the vehicle struck two parked cars and a parking meeter just outside the University of Cincinnati in Covington Kentucky . As the story states "Two female passengers who were with Maualuga were released without being charged." Another source says that one of the females is Chelsea Fauver, an 18 year old senior at Fairfield High, the other was another female and guess what, she wasn't even 18, as was stated "Maualuga was driving with two passengers in the car, a juvenile female and 18-year-old Chelsea Fauver. Both passengers were not injured."

Now the fun part! Theory Time! First lets state the facts:

1) Rey Maualuga has a 4 year $4.59m contract with the Bengals, of which $2.84m is guaranteed.

2) He was driving the 2003 Sunfire

3) Two female high school students were in the car with him

4) Ms. Fauver was about half an hour from her town

5) Rey had 6 Captain and Cokes prior to totaling the car.

What is wrong with this story? Why is Rey driving a 2003 Sunfire? Is it a sentimental car from before his NFL days? I doubt it. How much slack would his USC teamates gives him for rolling into practice with that ride? I don't know if anybody remembers the high school parking lot but I can recall many a female rolling out of the West Geauga parking lot in a Sunfire.

What I'm getting at here is that it was not his car. He was the only one of legal drinking age in the car. And women (especially girls) can't drive. He was not the one who wrecked the car, either Chelsea or the nameless juvenile smashed the two cars and the parking meeter. They all had been drinking, stopped Lee's Famous Recipe (from the Google map of the address of the crash) for some 4th meal and while Rey was making sure there was hot sauce in his bag one of the girls smashed the Sunfire. Rey, wanting to play Knight in Shining Armour, switched seats prior to the Covington Police arriving at the scene.

Two important questions following the altercation;

1) Which one gets to take Rey to the prom?

2) It's 2am on a Thursday night in Cincinnati, do you know where your daughters are at?

Team T-Swizzle ON FIRE!!!!

2p2 TLB Contest has started and Team T-Swizzle is lighting shit up, first day p3rc4 started off the first day with a ship of a $30 673 player MTT followed up by a 4th in a $10 1863 player MTT for a cool 1080 TLB's. After getting back from North Carolina I put in a later sunday MTT session that lead to my first outright win in a non 180 man on pokerstars.

The $5 6-max attracted 2658 poor souls that i eventually pwn after coming into the final table with 10bbs after getting 1 outed on the river. This is currently the high score in the clubhouse for the contest with 886.84 TLBs. Monday night I put in a night session which lead to a number of min cashes and eventually i was 1 tabling a $1 4940 entrant MTT that i really didn't care about until i realized it was worth a shit ton of TLB's. Ended up taking an extremely disappointing 6th after AQs < AJs and A9o < A8s. Abusing the FT bubble was fun tho.

I'm excited to keep this going and bring home the victory.




Also played 4 step 2's yesterday with good success:

Step Buyin Progress:
Step 1's - 0- $0
Step 2's - 36- $972
Step 3's - 3- $246
Step 4's - 0
Step 5's - 0
Step 6's - 0

W$ Earned - 0
Total Value: $1218

Step 1 "Complete"

Played 100 step 1's playing about 12 tables at a time, I want to stab my eyeballs out. I played pretty crappy and made a few big mistakes while playing but basically broke even equity wise. When i get into step 2's after the 2p2 tlb contest I will be playing a max of 4 tables at once to maximize my expectation. I'll post my team and any big scores during the TLB. Off to Wilmington NC tomorrow!

Step Buyin Progress:
Step 1's - 0- $0
Step 2's - 39- $1053
Step 3's - 1 - $82
Step 4's - 0
Step 5's - 0
Step 6's - 0

W$ Earned - 0
Total Value: $1135

Running Well Playing Well

Step Buyin Progress:
Step 1's - 23 - $172.5
Step 2's - 33 - $891
Step 3's - 1 - $82
Step 4's - 0
Step 5's - 0
Step 6's - 0

W$ Earned - 0
Total Value: $1145.5

Bad morning God mode after

played a bunch of 180 mans in the morning and ran like a paraplegic, then played a set of 12 step 1's and ran like Reggie Bush

Step Buyin Progress:
Step 1's - 32
Step 2's - 29
Step 3's - 1
Step 4's - 0
Step 5's - 0
Step 6's - 0

W$ Earned - 0
Total Value: $1105

Steps Day 3

Step Buyin Progress:
Step 1's - 44
Step 2's - 24
Step 3's - 1
Step 4's - 0
Step 5's - 0
Step 6's - 0

W$ Earned - 0
Total Value: $1060

I suck

Steps Day 2

Played 12 at bcm's house did/ran pretty shitty i think

Step Buyin Progress:
Step 1's - 68
Step 2's - 18
Step 3's - 1
Step 4's - 0
Step 5's - 0
Step 6's - 0

W$ Earned - 0
Total Value: $1078

Steps Day 1

Step Buyin Progress:
Step 1's - 77
Step 2's - 16
Step 3's - 1
Step 4's - 0
Step 5's - 0
Step 6's - 0

W$ Earned - 0

Total Value: $1091.5

WCOOP Steps and PLB Contest

So for some additional motivation and some structure to my play I have come up with the task to grind the steps to the WCOOP events that run until September. I already started playing a few and found them ridic soft. Since I started I have 8 step 2's and 1 step 3. From this point I am going to play 100 step 1's and take them as far as i can go. That's $750 in buyins that I would like to at least double. I plan on getting the cash out of the steps by gaining entry into WCOOP events and selling the W$ and might play a few events as well depending on my schedule. I will track my progress here as well in a spreadsheet of my own.

I also signed up for the 2p2 PLB contest that is about 2 weeks I think starting July 25th or something. We'll see how that goes, it will be done on a draft system and I am going to put in a lot of MTT volume as well.

Step Buyin Progress:
Step 1's - 100
Step 2's - 8
Step 3's - 1
Step 4's - 0
Step 5's - 0
Step 6's - 0

W$ Earned - 0

Total Value: $1048

Back and Better than EVER

Back on the tournament trail with a vengeance! Shipped the Sunday Afternoon 3r on FTP followed by a 2nd place finish in a nightly Daily Double. The roll is bigger and now so are the stakes.

As for today, definitely the biggest Sunday schedule I've ever played totaling $480+ in buyins depending on rebuys that include both miniFTOPS as well as the early KO FTOPS. I'll post interesting hands as the day goes on.

ewwwwwwwwwwww one table turbo satty to the 200k
http://www.pokerhand.org/?4244272

wtf spot, FTP 3r, first hand ive raised in an hour and a half
http://www.pokerhand.org/?4244650

just a really strange hand from the 3r where I'm just pissing in the wind
http://www.pokerhand.org/?4245364

standard whining hand
http://www.pokerhand.org/?4245916

For some reason I like this song a lot.

Edit:

He's BAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAACK

Took down my first 4.40 of 2008 and god damn it feels good! I played very well and patient. I was short stacked most of the way and some helpful flops and situations occurred. It helped sucking out A9>AK AIPF and A3 > KK AIPF but both hands were so standard.

http://www.pokerhand.org/?1981220

http://www.pokerhand.org/?1981226

There was one very tricky, interesting hand that i had. I played it passively and I think the only hand at the final table I may have played poorly. My read on the villain is that he has been aggressive and has led into me after a PF raise before and i folded. I called the flop to see the action on the turn, the turn bet made me think A10 or K10, so all of my outs were live. I hit one and couldn't fold with the way i played it.

http://www.pokerhand.org/?1981235

I plan to continue playing 4.40s at least until January and I might be playing them for an individual contest come February on pocketfives.com depending on a lot of things (strength of the field, work, girlfriend).

May all your cards be live and your pots be monster!

A little look at how Jan is going

http://www.pokerhand.org/?1975063

this is at a 4.40 FT where i have the player tagged as MR'ing most pots and i dont want to just shove PF. So i just call and get the flop im looking for and what do you know! I'm down 33 buy ins and feel im playing optimal poker.

I invested in PT and PAHUD and go over all my big hands and don't see too many mistakes if any. I am so frustrated ATM but still have confidence in my game. I've made 4 final tables with 3 8ths and 1 3rd so far. I can only hope to get out of this swong soon.

2008 Toughts and Goals

Coming from the 2007 recap post, I have a few thoughts on starting off 2008 the right way. Yesterday, I cashed out down to $440 and have the sole intentions of playing $4.40 180 mans until i feel comfortable with my game again. Mainly closing out tournaments and reestablishing my TAG play. I found myself making too many moves and -EV resteals because of not paying as close attention as i could have. Playing the 4.40's, I will be able to get to bed at a normal hour. I felt too often, especially in the 3r, "I have a big stack, if i keep this up ill be awake til 4am." And i wasn't saying that as a good thing. I spewed away way too many chips in the 5r (which i really wasn't rolled for), the 3r, the 20k, and who knows what else.

I can't really set a time when I'll be comfortable again in big MTTs, its all about how i feel with my game. The reason i cashed out is so i would not be tempted in playing any MTTs because i would not be rolled for anything that interests me. I would like, by the end of the year to maintain a 100 bi average for my bank roll.

Goals for 2008:
1) to maintain a 100% ROI in $4.40s
2) to average $500 a month income or $6k in total profits
3) to win a tournament with over 1k entrants
4) not play cash games except when donking around some PLO
5) to be ranked top 5 in Cleveland and top 50 in Ohio according to p5s sortable rankings page

2007 Year in Review

Starting 2007, I had no clue what the year would hold poker wise, but I knew I enjoyed playing at was pretty good at it. Little did i know, I had a lot to learn. I found myself clueless when facing many decisions so in middle February, I took the plunge and joined Pokerxfactor.com. I joined mainly to get a few questions answered and learn more about the game. As i learned from the sites pro's i saw my game get better and better. Fast forward to today, I look back at how much better my game has gotten and only want to see it prosper even more for 2008, but I'll touch on my next years goals in another post.

Highlights of the year include:
- Winning multiple 180 mans including my first $20 win for $1,080
- Finishing 5th in a 3r for just over $1k
- Getting 2nd and 3rd 1 month apart in the $5 6-max for $900 and $450 respectively
- Not paying the two time i played CC roulette in Turning stone

Lowlights of the year include:
- every final table i bubbled or was disappointed in the result (so many to count)
- every time i played cash games

I am definitely satisfied with how 2007, after playing many different games I've realized to just focus on my NL MTT game. HUSNGS are too tilting, and TSNGS make your eyes bleed eventually, and cash games, well lets not talk about that. To be continued with goals for next year....

Bloody Sunday?

For the second Sunday in a row I get most of the day to play tournaments. No million today, but I do plan on playing more MTTs than last week. The schedule includes:

Stars $5.50 5k guar - Out 705th no cash, reshoved J10os from button, A3s flopped wheel :(

Raised pre b/c had the player tagged as passive, so the raise PF was for value
http://www.pokerhand.org/?1789727
Nothing I could do here
http://www.pokerhand.org/?1789823

FTP $11 FO - Out no cash QQ> KK AIPF

Stars $11 15k 10 min levels - Out 2000ish, AJ > AK AIPF

FTP $26 17.5k guar
Very weird hand, I couldn't just call the flop, I couldn't fold, and I couldn't raise/fold, my only choice was to raise/call for my stack, which brought the worst possible turn card, so i just played position and pot control, i don't see any value betting the river either.
http://www.pokerhand.org/?1790260

Stars $3.30r 30k guar (2:15pm)
3pm: Stars $11 100k guar (3:30pm)

Frustrated/quit , deep, or break

To Be Continued

I plan on posting important and interesting hands throughout the day.

Wednesday 12/5

Went 5-2 in 22 HUSNGs and went somewhat deep in the $10 20k for a cash of about 30. I can't believe how bad the 22s are, Its not that the players are passive and huge stations, its that they are overagressive in situations where it is not needed such as this hand:

*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to lilOUmikey [Ks Qc]
lilOUmikey: raises 40 to 60
1DanielAllin: calls 40
*** FLOP *** [Qs 2s 6d]
1DanielAllin: checks
lilOUmikey: bets 80
1DanielAllin: raises 80 to 160
lilOUmikey: calls 80
*** TURN *** [Qs 2s 6d] [Tc]
1DanielAllin: bets 200
lilOUmikey: calls 200
*** RIVER *** [Qs 2s 6d Tc] [Kd]
1DanielAllin: bets 1520 and is all-in
lilOUmikey: calls 640 and is all-in
*** SHOW DOWN ***
1DanielAllin: shows [Th 8d] (a pair of Tens)
lilOUmikey: shows [Ks Qc] (two pair, Kings and Queens)
lilOUmikey collected 2120 from pot

sure it was nice hitting my 2nd pair on the river but i just let him do all the betting for me. As far as the 20k went, I was playing really well and had a good read on every table i played. I went out on this hand: http://www.pokerhand.org/?1777084

I made a reshove with some fold equity behind and the BB decides to call a 3 bet not involved with AKos, Just a setup i think, but I don't think i call call with AK there. I guess i would need a read on the player and i had been moving my chips around a lot because of having an effective reshove stack. Nothing i can do.

LHE: Day 1

played 370 hands 6-max 4 tables
$17.75 Profit

= $4.80bb's/100 hands

1338 VPPs til silver