The Calculated Trade Value of Andrew Luck, Auction Style!

With the end of the NFL regular season, fans of teams out of the playoff picture immediately shift their focus to the NFL Draft. Especially where my fandom lies, with the Cleveland Browns. It has been talked about since January 6th 2011, that Andrew Luck was going to be the #1 pick in the 2012 NFL Draft. If your mathematically challenged, thats over 15.5 months of discussion of this "once in a generation prospect".

A few weeks ago on December 21st, ESPN's Adam Schefter on Mike and Mike discussed a scenario where the STL Rams would have the first overall pick, and it becoming available on the trade market. Now obviously, the Indianapolis Colts have the #1 pick, but let's have some fun and do some math!!! "it becomes literally an auction for the #1 pick" and "roughly 3 1's and 2 2's maybe 4 1st round picks" . The purpose of this post is to mathematically determine how that auction would work. Now in order to have an auction, you need at least 2 potential buyers. I'll give you 4 potential buyers. The Cleveland Browns, Washington Redskins, Miami Dolphins, and Seattle Seahawks.

"Whoever's got the most money in their pocket can certainly buy it" or him in this case.

Now what we have to do it determine, who actually, has the most money in their pocket.

Facts:

1) Cleveland, Washington, Miami, and Seattle have all of their own picks for the next 3 seasons

2) Cleveland has Atlanta's 1st round pick from the Julio Jones trade

3) I am using this chart for calculations http://www.draftcountdown.com/features/Value-Chart.php

Assumptions:

1) Future picks have a decreased value on the value chart just like Time Value of Money

2) Since the new CBA rookie wage scale came into effect last season, 1st round picks are worth even more based on the smaller guaranteed contracts

3) When trading future picks, teams use an average of where they think the other team will finish the season of the pick they traded

3a) Both Atlanta and New Orleans were projected to be a playoff team in the 2011/12 season

To determine the value of future first round picks, I took two trades from last years draft that resulted in the trading of future first round picks, The Cleveland/Atlanta Julio Jones trade, and the New Orleans/New England Mark Ingram trade. (I only used those 2 trades since they are the only future 1st round pick draft transactions with the new rookie wage scale in effect)

So then we take the average of the two multiples 0.55557 and 0.46321 to get our Future Pick Multiple (FPM) to be 0.51. Now we can calculate the value of future picks and since no teams have 3 1st round picks and 2 2nd round picks in the 2012 NFL Draft, NOW we can have an auction!! The question is, who has the most money in their pockets?

My Calculations: (Assumed Luck would lead Wash, Miami, and Seattle to the Playoffs)

Redskins: 1st thru 4th round pick in 2012, 2013, and 2014 = 2,884.28

Dolphins: 1st thru 4th round pick in 2012, 2013, and 2014 = 2,791.28

Seahawks: 1st thru 4th round pick in 2012, 2013, and 2014 = 2,393.28

Browns: both 1st's in 2012, and 2011 2nd = 3,004.00

So basically once Mike Holmgren plays Dave Hester and bids 3004 on the draft value scale, nobody can match and that's the final YUUUUUUUUUUUP of this auction.

Coincidentally, on the draft value chart, the #1 OVR pick is worth 3,000 points, so if my calculations and assumptions are (somewhat) accurate (big if, I know), this pick is IMPOSSIBLE to be worth more than any other past or future 1st OVR selection.

Notes:

• This does not include the trade of players, since their value cannot be given a mathematical value.
• I have triple checked the math, but that doesn't mean it's correct. I am not an expert, just a fan with a blog and a legally purchased copy of Microsoft Excel.
• I am a Cleveland Browns fan and I would snap do this trade if my numbers are accurate.
• Can't you picture Mike Holmgren screaming YUUUUUUUUUUUP at the top of his lungs?

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