Manning Bowl Preview

Wait, you're telling me it's not Eli vs Peyton? You're telling me that the black sheep brother not named Cooper is the only Manning playing in this game? I am so confused!!! With the media focusing on the $28m neck of Peyton and comparing the two brothers accolades, just like how Tebow got all the attention a few weeks ago, will make Brady and Bill ANGRY, and you don't want to piss them off.

In all seriousness (first time for everything right?) this will be a game about two of the top QBs in the NFL. These two teams first squared off on November 6th in Foxboro this season with the G-Men coming away on top in an impressive 4th quarter show from both quarterbacks. I have no idea what the precedent of teams playing in the regular season and in the Super Bowl (can I say that?) is nor do I feel like looking it up. HOWEVAAAA, I will give my (not so expert) opinion on how this instance will effect the game today.

In the first match up, Tom Brady (he's so pretty) threw 2 INT's along with losing a fumble. If Brady has over 1.5 turnovers today, IMO, the Patriots are in big trouble. Besides the turnovers, I'll go through the box score, I'll give stats that stick out to me:

• The first score of the game occurred with 3:29 to go in the 3rd quarter, a 22 yd FG by the Giants. I did not watch the game but I'm curious as to how/why neither team could get on the board earlier?
• The Patriots ran the ball 24 times to 49 passes. Guess this isn't the ratio to succeed on the Giants?
• Victor Cruz had 6 catches for 91 yards. I'm guessing this is a recipe that Belichick could handle, that will be "containing" him. Also shows that NE has the ability to control him.
• NYG had 1 punt return in 5 punts, NE had 5 returns in 8 punts. NE averaged 19.2 yards on kick returns while NY averaged 15.25 yards. These tell me that the Patriots have huge edge in the special teams department.

If by my armchair quarterback comments, I am leaning towards New England in Super Bowl 46. I believe both QB's are going to play well so I don't see them as key players in terms of the result. My two players on each team that will most definitely (lies) have a key in the outcome. Antrel Rolle and Kenny Phillips for the Giants to have any chance at containing Hernandez and Gronk. BenJarvis Green-Ellis and Danny Woodhead for the Patriots to keep the Giants DE crew honest for runs out of passing formations.

After all, David Tyree ain't walking through that door.

Patriots 31

Giants 21

I also don't mind The Lawfirm as a long shot MVP for +1800.

The Challenge: Battle of the Exes Fantasy League

So over the past few years, ok maybe more, I have been a frequent viewer of every Real World/Road Rules Challenge Season. Over a brief discussion with a few friends we all jumped on the opportunity of creating a fantasy league for this upcoming season titled "The Battle of the Exes". We will be using the Grantland Scoring System and will likely have some fun outcomes for the seasons losers. Terms of the bets have yet to be agreed upon but the words "Frosted" and "Tips" have been discussed.

I went into this, as my first of many, reality show fantasy draft with a pretty basic strategy. That strategy was to know the basic rules of the show and correlate those rules and the Grantland system and choose the best possible team. Also, your team has to survive week after week to give you points. Something brought up in the preview show is how teams will be put into elimination challenges. The last place team from the performance challenge and a team chosen by the first place team in the same challenge. This lead me to think that the middle of the road teams with a lot of experience and a good political (LOL) standing are more likely to not step on toes in this game and make it to the end.

Having the 4th pick, I really liked my position, even though the 3 big hitters were gone in CT, Bananas, and The Ginger. With my thoughts on how the season was going to go, Abraham Boise was a safe pick and one of the nut job sociopaths would fall to me in the next round. However, last night I realized that I picked the Charlie Redz of The Challenge. Which obviously is a good thing for the Grantland scoring system.

Following my first pick, the 4 nut cases, Jasmine, Cara Maria, Camila, and Paula went in succession. I thought that the nut case along with the safe pick in the first round would've been PERFECT. It was obviously not meant to be, which lead me back to my first round strategy. Survival. With Evelyn and Laurel not in this season, Sarah, in my opinion, is the strongest female competitor. The only downside is she doesn't fuck in the house, but she won't hold back trying to make other girls cry.

My strategy for my 3rd round pick was the same as the first, going for value and maximum episode exposure. I think Emily and Ty are a real dark horse in this game. I don't remember an ugly break up between the two and she is RIPPED. My fourth pick came around and ONCE AGAIN, my train wreck female was chosen right before my selection. I thought Naomi was guaranteed at least a 3 some in the pool type points. So then it came down to the decision between Vinny and Aneesa. Aneesa definitely has get drunk and make bitches cry written all over her but I believe she was out first in the last challenge season and once again, I really liked the team of Sarah and Vinny. Vinny might be the Randy Moss of my 2007 fantasy team to go along with Sarah aka Tom Brady.

I understand my team doesn't have the flash, drama, controversy, or slut potential, but damnit I believe they will lead the league in total episodes and therefore maximize their point potential. Good luck on 2nd place, fellas!

If you want to follow along with the league, the main blog used will be that of Eric Doll: http://norcoastbias.blogspot.com/. Everyone else on twitter if you want to follow along with all the shit talking:

- lilOUmikey
- ClevelandCat
- uklefty22
- chairboyswag
- tdegirolamo

The Calculated Trade Value of Andrew Luck, Auction Style!

With the end of the NFL regular season, fans of teams out of the playoff picture immediately shift their focus to the NFL Draft. Especially where my fandom lies, with the Cleveland Browns. It has been talked about since January 6th 2011, that Andrew Luck was going to be the #1 pick in the 2012 NFL Draft. If your mathematically challenged, thats over 15.5 months of discussion of this "once in a generation prospect".

A few weeks ago on December 21st, ESPN's Adam Schefter on Mike and Mike discussed a scenario where the STL Rams would have the first overall pick, and it becoming available on the trade market. Now obviously, the Indianapolis Colts have the #1 pick, but let's have some fun and do some math!!! "it becomes literally an auction for the #1 pick" and "roughly 3 1's and 2 2's maybe 4 1st round picks" . The purpose of this post is to mathematically determine how that auction would work. Now in order to have an auction, you need at least 2 potential buyers. I'll give you 4 potential buyers. The Cleveland Browns, Washington Redskins, Miami Dolphins, and Seattle Seahawks.

"Whoever's got the most money in their pocket can certainly buy it" or him in this case.

Now what we have to do it determine, who actually, has the most money in their pocket.

Facts:

1) Cleveland, Washington, Miami, and Seattle have all of their own picks for the next 3 seasons

2) Cleveland has Atlanta's 1st round pick from the Julio Jones trade

3) I am using this chart for calculations http://www.draftcountdown.com/features/Value-Chart.php

Assumptions:

1) Future picks have a decreased value on the value chart just like Time Value of Money

2) Since the new CBA rookie wage scale came into effect last season, 1st round picks are worth even more based on the smaller guaranteed contracts

3) When trading future picks, teams use an average of where they think the other team will finish the season of the pick they traded

3a) Both Atlanta and New Orleans were projected to be a playoff team in the 2011/12 season

To determine the value of future first round picks, I took two trades from last years draft that resulted in the trading of future first round picks, The Cleveland/Atlanta Julio Jones trade, and the New Orleans/New England Mark Ingram trade. (I only used those 2 trades since they are the only future 1st round pick draft transactions with the new rookie wage scale in effect)

So then we take the average of the two multiples 0.55557 and 0.46321 to get our Future Pick Multiple (FPM) to be 0.51. Now we can calculate the value of future picks and since no teams have 3 1st round picks and 2 2nd round picks in the 2012 NFL Draft, NOW we can have an auction!! The question is, who has the most money in their pockets?

My Calculations: (Assumed Luck would lead Wash, Miami, and Seattle to the Playoffs)

Redskins: 1st thru 4th round pick in 2012, 2013, and 2014 = 2,884.28

Dolphins: 1st thru 4th round pick in 2012, 2013, and 2014 = 2,791.28

Seahawks: 1st thru 4th round pick in 2012, 2013, and 2014 = 2,393.28

Browns: both 1st's in 2012, and 2011 2nd = 3,004.00

So basically once Mike Holmgren plays Dave Hester and bids 3004 on the draft value scale, nobody can match and that's the final YUUUUUUUUUUUP of this auction.

Coincidentally, on the draft value chart, the #1 OVR pick is worth 3,000 points, so if my calculations and assumptions are (somewhat) accurate (big if, I know), this pick is IMPOSSIBLE to be worth more than any other past or future 1st OVR selection.

Notes:

• This does not include the trade of players, since their value cannot be given a mathematical value.
• I have triple checked the math, but that doesn't mean it's correct. I am not an expert, just a fan with a blog and a legally purchased copy of Microsoft Excel.
• I am a Cleveland Browns fan and I would snap do this trade if my numbers are accurate.
• Can't you picture Mike Holmgren screaming YUUUUUUUUUUUP at the top of his lungs?

Leave comments/questions here or you can get to me through my twitter account HERE.